Demographers already knew the divorce rate was falling, even if the average American didn\u2019t. Their question, however, was why? And what do current trends mean for the marital prospects of today\u2019s newlyweds?<\/p>\n
One theory is that divorce rates are falling largely because of other demographic changes\u2014especially an aging population. Older people are less likely to get divorced, so maybe mellowing boomers were enough to explain the trend.<\/p>\n
Cohen\u2019s analysis of US Census Bureau survey data, however, suggests something more fundamental is at work. Even when he controls for factors such as age, the divorce rate over the same period still dropped 8%.<\/p>\n
The marriage rate has also fallen over the last several decades. But Cohen calculates the divorce rate as a ratio of divorces to the total number of married women. So, the divorce rate\u2019s decline isn\u2019t a reflection of a decline in marriages. Rather, it\u2019s evidence that marriages today have a greater chance of lasting than marriages did ten years ago.<\/p>\n
Young people get the credit for fewer divorces because boomers have continued to divorce at unusually high rates, all the way into their 60s and 70s. From 1990 to 2015, according to Bowling Green\u2019s National Center for Family and Marriage Research, the divorce rate doubled for people aged 55 to 64, and even tripled for Americans 65 and older.<\/p>\n
Cohen\u2019s results suggest this trend, called \u201cgrey divorce,\u201d may have leveled out in the past decade, but boomers are still divorcing at much higher rates than previous generations did at similar ages.<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s young couples are taking a different path<\/h1>\n
Many poorer and less educated Americans are opting not to get married at all.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re living together, and often raising kids together, but deciding not to tie the knot. And studies have shown these cohabiting relationships are less stable than they used to be.<\/p>\n
Fewer divorces, therefore, aren\u2019t only bad news for matrimonial lawyers but a sign of America\u2019s widening chasm of inequality. Marriage is becoming a more durable, but far more exclusive, institution.<\/p>\n
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