This setback raises a basic question for Mr. Guaid\u00f3 and the more than 50 countries that recognize him as the interim president of the country:<\/p>\n
What’s next?<\/h2>\n
Economic pressure:<\/strong>\u00a0Yesterday, US Vice President Mike Pence met with Mr. Guaid\u00f3 and other regional leaders in Colombia, and announced additional US sanctions on members of the Venezuelan government. The US has already put sanctions on Venezuela’s cash cow national oil company PDVSA, and is trying to get other countries to go along too. It figures that squeezing the regime’s cash flow makes it more likely that top generals will defect (if they can get amnesty for their crimes). But sanctions also serve to deepen the anguish of Venezuela’s people as the government has less money to pay for imported food and medicine.<\/p>\n The military option?<\/strong>\u00a0One of Mr. Guaid\u00f3’s main advisers has explicitly called for a US-backed invasion, a\u00a0potentially disastrous\u00a0<\/a>option that the Trump administration has long said is at least “on the table.” Over the weekend, US Senator Marco Rubio, an outspoken Venezuela hawk,\u00a0ominously tweeted<\/a>\u00a0a photo of Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi, who was beaten to death by a mob after the US helped topple his government.<\/p>\n But the American public is war-weary, and most Latin Americans, mindful of Washington’s sordid history of regional meddling, don’t want “los yanquis” showing up in tanks again either. Not surprisingly, the US’s main regional allies in Chile, Colombia, and Brazil have all said they oppose an intervention. Polls taken before the aid standoff\u00a0showed a majority of Venezuelans agree.<\/a><\/p>\n None of this means that it’s all roses for Maduro, of course.<\/p>\n As his cash flow slows to a trickle, he wakes up every morning wondering if his generals will join him for dinner or serve him for lunch. Millions of his people are starving. His opponent has strong support both at home and abroad, and those humanitarian aid trucks (and some\u00a0ships<\/a>) are still idling near Venezuela’s borders.<\/p>\n But for now, Maduro continues to cling to power, and he has improbably forced the ball back into Mr. Guaid\u00f3’s court.<\/p>\n Since 1898, the US has effected, directly or indirectly, 41 changes of regime in more than a dozen Latin American countries,\u00a0according to a Harvard study<\/a>.<\/p>\n That includes 17 instances of overt military or CIA action and 24 murkier interventions: here’s a map of the meddling. According to Eurasia Group, the Bay of Pigs invasion<\/a> is not counted because it failed to overthrow the Castro regime.<\/p>\nAnd Maduro?<\/h2>\n
U.S. meddling in the Americas<\/h2>\n
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