There are few indicators that joblessness is rising. <\/p>\n
Worries that broken supply chains would stoke inflation also look overdone, for now at least.<\/p>\n
Data at the beginning of March from State Street PriceStats Indicators, which measures inflation daily, suggest that inflation has been on a steady downward trend since the beginning of the year (though in recent days food prices have inched up, perhaps pointing to the effects of stockpiling.)<\/p>\n
Railway and trucking volumes appear to be holding up. There is some evidence of lower electricity demand, perhaps as people miss work, though the figures are volatile.<\/p>\n
Household spending is taking a big hit, however. Analysis by Goldman Sachs of Twitter posts suggests that consumer confidence has dropped.<\/p>\n
People are nervous of crowds\u2014and some 40% of household spending is vulnerable to people shunning gatherings, according to a methodology from an Oxford University research paper. About 5% of consumer spending goes on dining out, for instance.<\/p>\n
Google searches for \u201crestaurant reservations\u201d are way down. A report from JPMorgan Chase estimates that on the mid March weekend the virus reduced cinema ticket receipts by 20%. Lower consumer spending points to feeble GDP growth in the first half of this year, though a recession still seems unlikely at this stage.<\/p>\n
What happens next depends on whether America gets a handle on the outbreak. If it does not, then over time revenue-starved firms and salary-starved families will struggle. But if America contains the virus, it can likely look forward to a bounce back of sorts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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