With the impact of the coronavirus pandemic still ricocheting throughout the US economy, it can be difficult to envision retail returning to normal one day. And yet somehow it will\u2014and much of it will look virtually indistinguishable from the pre-crisis reality. But changes in consumer behavior will be lasting.<\/p>\n
Aside from the many brick-and-mortar retailers watching foot traffic and sales drop to near zero, the most profound shift in consumer behavior is happening in grocery ecommerce\u2014and this shift is likely to have one of the longest-lasting consequences.<\/p>\n
According to our most recent ecommerce forecast (prior to COVID-19), we expected US food and beverage ecommerce sales to rise 23.4% to $32.22 billion this year, with the segment accounting for just 3.2% of total retail sales. It is both the fastest-growing and least penetrated ecommerce category\u2014and expect that these figures will be revised upward in the coming months.<\/p>\n
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Grocery ecommerce has had huge momentum behind it\u2014even prior to much of the US population social distancing and staying home\u2014with last year representing an obvious inflection point. According to\u00a0TABS Analytics<\/a>, 2019 was a year of hockey-stick growth for both initial trials and increasing frequency of online grocery ordering. Overall penetration among US internet users jumped from 38% in 2018 to 56% in 2019, while the percentage of those who regularly ordered groceries online spiked from 17% to 37%.<\/p>\n Online logistics are also continuing to improve. Amazon\u2019s investment in warehouse and last-mile logistics for next-day and same-day Prime (not to mention removing its $14.99 monthly fee for Amazon Fresh) eliminated barriers to online grocery delivery. The buildouts of click-and-collect operations by Walmart and various national grocery chains helped propel that behavior forward.<\/p>\n The flame was already lit, but the coronavirus crisis has clearly poured gas on the fire. According to\u00a0Rakuten Intelligence<\/a>, order volume for online grocery retailers surged 210% from March 12 to 15, compared with the same period in 2019. Showing similar trends,\u00a0NetElixir<\/a>\u00a0reported that online food sales surged 183% between March 1 and 25, vs. the same period last year.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ceo-na.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/2.png\")
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